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Daily brief · Wednesday, August 26
The forecast disagreement we published last night got wider tonight, not narrower, and Wednesday is the day the National Weather Service has been pointing at all week. The Lake County zone forecast issued 5:42 PM Tuesday has mostly sunny morning skies going mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, highs 67 to 77, light winds. The NWS gridded product for Leadville, updated 5:41 PM, is dry through 10 AM at 1 to 2 percent, then climbs: 11 percent at noon, 20 at 1 PM, 29 at 2 PM, and a 37 percent plateau from 3 through 5 PM, falling to 6 percent by 6 PM and low single digits after dark, with all 0.254 mm of the day's modeled water in the noon to 6 PM block. Open-Meteo, the model behind our own 7-day strip, caps the entire day at 9 percent and forecasts no measurable rain, so the strip below shows 9 while the NWS says 40. That is a wider gap than last night's 30 against 12. Before we tell you which way to lean, here is how last night's identical call resolved, because we said we would rather be checked than trusted. We told you to plan on the higher number for Tuesday. What actually happened in town: the Leadville airport station reported no rain and no thunder in any observation from 11 AM through 4:45 PM, then about ten minutes of light rain around 7:15 PM with nothing measurable behind it. So for town, the model's low number was nearer the mark, and that is worth saying plainly. It is also what a 30 percent afternoon usually looks like: most of the area stays dry, somewhere gets wet, and nobody knows which square is which in advance. We lean the same way tonight anyway, for the same reason: the Pueblo hazardous weather outlook issued 10:50 AM Tuesday names Wednesday and Thursday as the two days with the greatest storm coverage this week, with locally heavy rainfall the main hazard and a continuing flash flood risk on the Aspen Acres burn scar to our south. Two NWS products against one model, two nights running. Plan the high country around the 40, and if the 9 verifies again we will print that too. The details. Sunrise 6:28, sunset 7:45, overnight low near 47, town high 72, UV 7.3. Above 11,000 feet the zone forecast carries the same 40 percent afternoon with highs 58 to 67. Modeled at each summit's own elevation, Hope Pass runs 40 to 62 F, Mosquito Pass 38 to 60, Mt. Elbert 33 to 55, with gusts mild all day and peaking only around 17 mph near 5 PM. Convective energy is modest, CAPE near 360 at all three, and the model puts summit storm probability at just 9 percent, so the disagreement extends up high. The boring, correct read: be off the summits by early afternoon on a 40 percent NWS day, and enjoy the calm wind either way. Air is clean. AQI 34 to 62 across Wednesday with PM2.5 topping out at 7.1 micrograms per cubic metre, the highest particulate reading in over a week but still nowhere near smoke territory, so the Moderate hours are ozone, not haze. No NWS alert covers the county. Water, with the hour attached as always. The Arkansas at Granite was 64.0 F at 6:45 PM tonight after running 55.9 to 67.6 across the day, so the afternoon peak still clears the 65 F trout stress line by better than two degrees even as the mornings run cold. Halfmoon Creek is 61.2 F and 6.67 cfs, and the Arkansas near Leadville eased to 10.1 cfs from 10.6. Fish the mornings, rest the bank by mid afternoon. Roads: Wednesday is the heaviest construction day on the approaches since race week. All three weekday zones run 7 AM to 7 PM: the resurfacing north of town at MP 170 to 174, Minturn at MP 148, and the Twin Lakes to Buena Vista paving at MP 192.7 to 202. The two round-the-clock jobs continue on top of them, Minturn to Red Cliff at MP 152.5 to 154 and the Arkansas River bridge near Johnson Village with full stops and 15 to 20 minute delays, both posted through Saturday night. Drive outside 7 AM to 7 PM and you skip three of the five. Both corridor surfaces were operator-confirmed dry at 5:10 PM tonight. Notices are unchanged: the full district alert list was re-read at 7:55 PM tonight. Stage 1 fire restrictions run through Nov 14, the Willow Fire closure to Sep 30, Turquoise Lake Road is still closed from Abe Lee to Hagerman Pass with no end date, and Interlaken is closed to June 2028. One change on this site tonight, made because you watch these numbers: the 7-day strip's daily percentage now reads over each day's own 5 AM to midnight hours, so a storm crossing midnight counts toward the evening it belongs to instead of setting the next morning's headline. Sunday showed the problem two weeks running; it will not show it again. Ahead of Wednesday: Thursday carries 30 percent in the zone forecast and the pattern eases behind it, Friday looks quiet, and then the weekend turns wet again, Saturday 40 percent in the zone forecast against 21 on the strip with town gusts modeled to 25 mph, Sunday 50 zone and 51 strip with a wet 1 PM to midnight window, Monday 50. The dry gap for anything ambitious is Thursday evening through Saturday morning.
Written 2026-08-25, 8:00 PM MT. Every figure above carries the issue time of the product it came from, because on a moving pattern a number without an hour is not a fact.
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7-day forecast
A daily precipitation percentage is the day's own maximum from 5 AM to midnight, not a schedule; an overnight storm crossing the date line counts toward the evening it belongs to, not the morning after. Where a day is wet enough for timing to matter, the orange line under its percentage gives the longest continuous stretch of that day whose own hourly probability reaches most of the daily figure. It is read from hourly model data and, at several days of lead time, that data arrives in multi-hour blocks, so treat the edges as guidance rather than as a start time.
Data in this page rendered 08/25/2026 20:07 MT (NOAA/NWS models via Open-Meteo, USGS gauges); your browser also refreshes these numbers live on load.
Up high
Model forecasts corrected to each elevation, conditions above treeline are usually far harsher than town. Afternoon thunderstorms are common in summer; most parties plan to be off high summits and passes by early afternoon. The storm-risk line under each peak is a modeled estimate, not an observation: it reads Open-Meteo hourly precipitation probability and CAPE at that peak's own elevation across the 11 AM to 8 PM window, and reports the window peak plus the first hour that reaches 30 percent. It is a planning input for turnaround times, not a forecast of whether a specific storm will hit you. Check the official NWS forecast and read the sky before you go.
Water · flows & temps7-day detail
| Gauge | Flow | Water temp |
|---|---|---|
| Arkansas R. nr Leadville | 10.1 cfs | - |
| Halfmoon Creek | 6.67 cfs | 61.2°F |
| Arkansas R. at Granite | - | 62.8°F |
Trails & roads · notices verified 2026-08-25
Highway status · checked 2026-08-25, 8:05 PM MT
Leadville to I-70 at Copper Mtn, MP 0 to 22.6. Surface condition from the live COtrip feed, operator-confirmed at 5:10 PM Tuesday. No closures or restrictions posted on this segment, and no NWS alert covers the pass. · CDOT's own NDFD line on this segment was refreshed at 6:56 PM Tuesday. The Lake County zone forecast issued 5:42 PM Tuesday gives Wednesday a 40 percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms, so expect a dry surface through the morning with wet stretches possible from early afternoon into early evening.
Minturn at I-70 south to Buena Vista, MP 143.4 to 210.8, the whole Leadville approach in one COtrip segment. Surface condition operator-confirmed at 5:10 PM Tuesday. Construction zones are listed below and are the real delay risk, not the surface. Zero incidents were posted on this corridor tonight. · CDOT's NDFD line refreshed 6:56 PM Tuesday. Same story as CO 91: dry morning, a 40 percent afternoon storm chance Wednesday means brief wet zones are possible between noon and 6 PM, and the construction schedule below matters far more to your travel time.
The heaviest construction day on the approach since race week. Resurfacing north of town between County Road 21 and CO 91, MP 170 to 174; road work at Minturn, MP 148 to 148.5; and paving from Twin Lakes to Buena Vista, MP 192.7 to 202. All three run 7 AM to 7 PM with alternating single-lane traffic. Drive before 7 AM or after 7 PM and you skip all three. Pulled from the COtrip planned-events feed Aug 25, 8:05 PM MT.
Road construction between Forest Service Road 762 near Minturn and Water Street near Red Cliff, posted continuously through Aug 29 at 11:59 PM. Alternating traffic, 11 ft width limit, delays up to 20 minutes, and it does not stop overnight or at weekends. Anyone driving down from I-70 hits it at any hour. Re-pulled Aug 25, 8:05 PM MT, unchanged from last night.
Bridge maintenance with one alternating lane, full stops and delays of 15 to 20 minutes, posted continuously through midnight at the end of Saturday Aug 29. The feed files this under a program named for another county; its own coordinates and jurisdiction are Chaffee County at Johnson Village, which we verified on Aug 24. Re-pulled Aug 25, 8:05 PM MT.
Thursday and Friday both carry the same three weekday zones, 7 AM to 7 PM. The MP 170 to 174 resurfacing zone also carries a Saturday Aug 29 window, 7 AM to 7 PM, which weekday zones did not do during race week. Standing rule, repeated on purpose: a day absent from the feed means CDOT has not published it yet, not that the road is clear. Tonight's statewide feed held 479 planned events against a request cap of 2000, so nothing was truncated.
Highway data from CDOT / COtrip, state highways only. County and forest roads are covered in the notices below.
USFS order 02-12-01-26-36 was signed Aug 19 and runs from Aug 21 at 12:01 AM through Sep 30 at 11:59 PM unless rescinded. It supersedes order 02-12-01-26-33, which we had been citing since Aug 10, and the affected recreation site list is not the same. Still closed: Mount Massive Wilderness, Mount Massive Trail 1487, Highline and Native Lake Trail 1489, Willow Creek Trailhead, Elbert Creek Campground, Halfmoon East and Halfmoon West Campgrounds, and Colorado Trail 1776 Segment 11 at the Mount Massive Trailhead. Newly listed compared with the previous order: Mount Massive Trail 1487 and the Colorado Trail segment. No longer listed: North Mount Elbert Trail 1484, Windsor Lake Trail 1490 and North Halfmoon Creek Trail 1485. The described area now runs south of Turquoise Lake, south of County Road 4 and NFSR 105 to Busk Creek, east of the tree line at the Busk Creek switchback, south and east along the eastern slope of Mount Massive to the wilderness boundary near the North Halfmoon Trailhead, east to the main Mount Massive Trailhead, and from there along the NORTH side of Halfmoon Creek to the east boundary of the forest. We are not going to tell you that the standard Mt. Elbert north route is therefore open. The boundary is defined by the map exhibit attached to the order, we cannot read a map into text, and Elbert Creek Campground is still closed. Call the Leadville Ranger District at 719-486-0749 before you plan on it. Order number, signature date, effective dates, described area and rec-site list were read directly from the order text on Aug 20. Re-read on the full district alert list at 7:55 PM Aug 25, unchanged. This is now the operative closure; the earlier order 02-12-01-26-33 that this site cited from Aug 10 is superseded and gone. Both 2026 Leadville 100 races have now been run on courses rerouted around the earlier version of this closure, with Hagerman Pass Road, Sugarloaf Mountain and Powerline off both. The closure itself outlasts the race season: it runs to Sep 30 unless rescinded, so it governs autumn hiking on Mount Massive and the Halfmoon drainage, not just race week.
Official source: USFS Pike-San Isabel NF
Order 02-12-00-26-37, signed Aug 20, replaced the Stage 2 order 02-12-00-26-29 that had covered the Leadville Ranger District since Aug 2. Stage 1 took effect at 12:01 AM on Aug 21 and runs through Nov 14 at 11:59 PM unless rescinded, across the Leadville, Salida, San Carlos, Pikes Peak, South Park and South Platte districts. What actually changes: campfires are permitted again, but only in a permanent metal or concrete fire pit or grate that the Forest Service has installed and maintains at a developed recreation site, meaning campgrounds and picnic areas. Dispersed camping still means no fire of any kind, including charcoal and briquettes. A device fuelled solely by liquid or gas that can be turned on and off is allowed in an area cleared of flammable material within three feet, and a fully enclosed metal stove with a chimney at least five feet long and a quarter inch spark arrestor is allowed with ten feet cleared. Smoking is prohibited except in an enclosed vehicle or building, at a developed recreation site, or while stopped in a barren three foot circle. Explosives are prohibited and welding needs a ten foot cleared area and an extinguisher. The practical version for anyone camping here through the autumn: a fire is legal at a developed campground fire ring and nowhere else on forest land. Read directly from the order text on Aug 20. Re-read on the full district alert list at 7:55 PM Aug 25, unchanged.
Official source: USFS Pike-San Isabel NF
The Forest Service alert list carries a Leadville Ranger District closure of Turquoise Lake Road, County Road 4, due to asphalt damage. The road is barricaded from the Abe Lee parking turnoff to Hagerman Pass. Access to Turquoise Lake is still available via County Road 9C and County Road 9 to the Hagerman Pass intersection, and the Abe Lee fishing site remains open and reachable from CR 4. The alert start date is April 7, 2026 and no end date is posted. It did not affect the three official crew locations for the 2026 Run, which were Outward Bound, Pipeline Alternate and Twin Lakes Village. With the race season over it matters most to anglers and to anyone driving the lake loop, because the through route to Hagerman Pass from the Abe Lee end is gone. It has now been closed for four and a half months with no end date posted. Re-read on the full district alert list at 7:55 PM Aug 25, unchanged.
Official source: USFS Leadville Ranger District
USFS order 02-12-01-26-19 closes the Interlaken Hotel and Annex area on the Leadville Ranger District from June 22, 2026 at 12:01 AM through June 21, 2028 at 11:59 PM unless rescinded. Entering the described area is prohibited, for public safety in an area with known hazards from tree fall and damaged buildings. The described area is defined only by the map exhibit attached to the order, which we cannot read into text, so we are not going to tell you where its boundary falls relative to the Colorado Trail or the 2026 Run course. If your Twin Lakes plans involve walking out toward Interlaken, call the Leadville Ranger District at 719-486-0749. The order runs to June 2028, so this is a two year condition rather than a seasonal one. Note also that an older district alert from June 12 still says the Dexter House is safe to tour while other buildings should be avoided; the June 22 closure order is the later and stricter document, and it is the one we would plan off. Re-read on the full district alert list at 7:55 PM Aug 25, unchanged.
Official source: USFS Leadville Ranger District
The road over Mosquito Pass (13,185 ft) is a rough, high-clearance 4x4 route, typically passable only mid-summer through early fall depending on snow. There is no official live status feed for this county road, so reports from recent travelers and the ranger district are the best sources. No closure or restriction is posted for it on the district alert list as of the full re-read at 7:55 PM Aug 25.
Official source: USFS Leadville Ranger District
Checked each morning against official sources, USFS alerts, InciWeb fire closures, and CDOT. Always verify with the land manager before you go: Pike-San Isabel NF (Leadville Ranger District) · COtrip road conditions (US 24 / CO 91) · CAIC avalanche forecasts (winter).
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Start with the altitude guide, at 10,152 feet how you handle your first 48 hours matters more than anything you pack. Then: where to stay, getting here, the Leadville 100 crew guide, acclimatization strategies for racers, 16 years of race-weekend weather, how to get into the Leadville 100, and Mosquito Pass. All guides live under Guides.